Grecia kaput. Falimentul se va declara (cumva) foarte curînd. Banii avansați recent pentru a fi redirecționați către băncile creditoare au fost, probabil, ultima salvă de artilerie a tot mai neputincioaselor state-supus. Retragerea din Grecia se va face, probabil, în ordine.
Dacă vin, adică dacă băncile strîng voluntar cureaua pînă la os, pierderile vor fi enorme însă există șansa neînfrîngerii (că de victorie…). Dacă nu se lasă, atunci nu vor pieri 80% din bănci, vor pieri toate în haosul ce va urma. Cu tot cu euro.
Băncile franceze și germane sînt iremediabil expuse (cum se zice pre limba lor). Dar mai sînt și altele, vezi austriecele, de exemplu. Noi avem bănci franceze, austriece și grecești, mostly. Ziceam și eu.
Mai jos e un extras din raportul BIS din iunie 2010 (vezi pg. 19 pentru graficul pe care nu l-am putut extrage din pdf). Spune destul.
„French and German banks were particularly exposed to the residents of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. At the end of 2009, they had $958 billion of combined exposures ($493 billion and $465 billion, respectively) to the residents of these countries. This amounted to 61% of all reported euro area banks’ exposures to those economies. French and German banks were most exposed to residents of Spain ($248 billion and $202 billion, respectively), although the sectoral compositions of their claims differed substantially. French banks were particularly exposed to the Spanish non-bank private sector ($97 billion), while more than half of German banks’ foreign claims on the country were on Spanish banks ($109 billion). German banks also had large exposures to residents of Ireland ($177 billion), more than two thirds ($126 billion) of which were to the non-bank private sector.
French and German banks were not the only ones with large exposures to residents of euro area countries facing market pressures. Banks headquartered in the United Kingdom had larger exposures to Ireland ($230 billion) than did banks based in any other country. More than half of those ($128 billion) were to the non-bank private sector. UK banks also had sizeable exposures to
residents of Spain ($140 billion), mostly to the non-bank private sector ($79 billion). Meanwhile, Spanish banks were the ones with the highest level of exposure to residents of Portugal ($110 billion). Almost two thirds of that exposure ($70 billion) was to the non-bank private sector.
Government debt accounted for a smaller part of euro area banks’ exposures to the countries facing market pressures than claims on the private sector. The joint foreign claims of banks headquartered in the euro zone on the public sectors of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain ($254 billion) amounted to approximately 16% of their combined overall exposures to these countries.
Once again, most of those claims belonged to French ($106 billion) and German ($68 billion) banks. These two banking systems had sizeable exposures to the public sectors of Spain ($48 billion and $33 billion, respectively), Greece ($31 billion and $23 billion, respectively) and Portugal ($21 billion and $10 billion, respectively). The largest non-euro area holders of claims on the above four public sectors were Japanese and UK banks ($23 billion and $22 billion, respectively). The greatest exposures of both these banking systems were to the Spanish public sector ($13 billion and $9 billion, respectively).
The exposures of BIS reporting banks to the public sectors of the euro area countries facing market pressures can be put into perspective by comparing them with these banks’ capital. The combined exposures of German, French and Belgian banks to the public sectors of Spain, Greece and Portugal amounted to 12.1%, 8.3% and 5.0%, respectively, of their joint Tier 1 capital. By comparison, the combined exposures of Italian, Dutch and Swiss banks to the same public sectors were equal to 2.8%, 2.7% and 2.0%, respectively, of their Tier 1 capital. Those ratios stood at 3.4%, 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively, for Japanese banks and 2.0%, 0.8%, and 0.7%, respectively, for UK banks. The exposures of US banks to each of the above public sectors amounted to less than 1% of their Tier 1 capital.”
(doar că bănci americane au „asigurat” mari sume de bani împrumutate de bănci europene, așa că vor fi antrenate)